The California Golden Gate Plan to Climate Stabilization by 2050 has been updated to reflect the Copenhagen challenge of zero emissions by 2025 By Daisy Carlson
This is an achievable step by step strategy to reduce CO2 emissions by 80% or more below the required year 2000 levels, while providing sufficient energy to meet services for a growing population.
This paper sets forth The California Golden Gate Plan, (CGGP) the elements of which are Practical, Achievable, Equitable, and Understandable. The plan can be implemented with public marketing and education, reasonable policy shifts, incremental tax increases and continued progress on existing and new technology being brought to affordable scale.
The CGGP will provide the state of California additional revenue streams, jobs, energy independence and clean energy revenue.
The CGGP will be a model for other states and countries to adopt the fiscally successful use of education, innovation and environmental stewardship to achieve MORE, an acronym I use to describe a bio-diverse business system metric: Money Organisms Resources and Environment. This profit criterion for business statements and planning includes a legacy of stewardship that provides MORE system-wide stability.
The California Golden Gate Plan provides a legacy for future generations in the same spirit of the Golden Gate Bridge that during the Depression provided jobs, building a technological achievement that not only connected two land masses but connected citizens to an investment for all future generations to enjoy and be proud of. The bridge was built with California’s pioneering spirit. In that spirit we will now continue the next journey, pioneering a clean energy economy that is not only sustainable but restorative. California will show the world fiscal abundance can be ethically responsible and environmentally sound.
Because we all have an interest in a safe future for our children and an abundant bio-diverse environment, we must universally compound our interests. We all have a job to do which means all sectors and individuals taking incremental steps towards a safe future. To achieve near 0 emissions by 2050, every sector would need to reduce emissions at a minimum 4% and new clean energy increase by a minimum of 4% of progress yearly towards cleaner energy, conservation and efficiency. Every sector’s incremental 4% steps would achieve a giant leap towards climate and energy security. Many of these steps are profitable or render MORE net savings. Using the compounding principle of 72 in the state of California, every energy user and provider would follow a simple rule that will compound the interests of California’s population, business and government.
Reviewing the emissions landscape, sector evaluations & current California plans
Above from class slides Sally Benson – Practical guide to creating sustainable energy systems. 2004 CA emissions.
Source: Energy Related Emissions, http://www.arb.ca.gov/app/ghg/ghg_sector.php
Applying the compounding principle of 72 to California’s energy use landscape.
2004 CA Emissions CO2 Eq: 505 MT By 2050, we want to achieve in a practical manner less than 100MT. By taking a system-wide step-by-step approach, progress can really add up.
Green House Gas Inventory with applied minimum compounding Key
Transportation 227, 45% 45.0 MT, 45% - 4% for 40 years is 44.35 MT
Electricity 128, 25% 25.35 MT, 25% - 4% for 40 years is 25.01 MT
Industrial 105, 21% 20.8 MT, 21% - 4% for 40 years is 20.51 MT
Residential 32, 6% 6.3 MT, 6% - 4% for 40 years is 06.25 MT
Commercial 13, 3% 2.6 MT, 3% - 4% for 40 years is 02.54 MT
These reductions applied with the acquisition of existing clean technology can increase our energy intensity while reducing emissions by 80 %t
Total 505MT, 100% 100 MT, 100% 98.66MT, 100%
California population estimates for 2010 are 40 million inhabitants. At a 1.5% increase for 40 years, we can estimate population to be 72 million in 2050. The goal is to reduce energy use by a minimum of 4% a year, achieving electric use of about 2,070 kWh per capita. Today, thanks to the conservation work of Arthur Rosenfeld and others, we are using about 7,000 kWh per capita, about half of the American average. A few levers to continue turning to achieve conservation and efficiency to reduce emissions are price, culture, policy, investment and most importantly technology innovation.
To stabilize energy demand with a growing population we must conserve 4% per annum per capita at today’s rate, while efficiency and clean tech scale at about 4% a year to achieve the 2050 goal.
Accepting the Copenhagen Challenge while restoring the California State deficit
California can achieve an 80-85% reduction in emissions by 2025, which is the goal Copenhagen established in March 2009 if each sector reduced emissions by 15% per annum.
If each sector progressed @ 15% per annum by 2025 emissions we would be 62.72MT, -100% of current emissions.
Each sector can be divided into three moving parts, facilitating progress growth that resembles GDP growth and healthy business development.
Conservation on the use side, -5%
Efficiency on the delivery side +5%
Clean technology development and deployment +5%
This linear theory is set forth to illustrate the size of the steps all aspects of the energy landscape should consider, progress in emissions reduction will move in various sized waves some much larger than others. I set forth a linear plan to facilitates the psychology of such a sweeping change and give everyone in the landscape of energy an opportunity to contribute reasonably and with out being frozen by fear. 80% frightens people and organizations into non-action as it is too big a step to imagine. Most people and organizations on the other hand can imagine incremental steps and planning that add up to progress over time. People need to know how big the steps need to be to achieve the goal, step by step we can then achieve it and measure progress.
Sectors that will outpacing the 15% key will cover shortages in other progress areas.
Smart grid/ Advanced Metering Infrastructure/Demand and Response appliances.
Cap and Trade developing robust carbon market will push progress.
MPG increased to 40 by 2015 will replace fleet by 2020. Tax shortfalls.
This paper was initially developed for the more commonly accepting 1950 goals using a 4% key. Prudence would require the 15% key. My personal belief is that we would protect the future of all species more efficiently with the Copenhagen challenge of 2025. Additionally this would facilitate a shift into a robust restorative economy that can provide economic stability and reduce the growing debt and expense of environmental restoration. Until business reflects the environmental and social costs of their activity they will run at a deficit and be thus accepting false profits that have created a financial deficit to be paid by restoration process in the future. It is a serious business liability not to accept this transitional challenge and will eventually bankrupt them as they will cease to be viable in the new economy.
Applying the compounding principle of 72 to California’s energy use landscape at 15%.
2004 CA Emissions CO2-Eq: 505 MT by 2025 we want less than 100MT.
2004 Goal Minimum Compounding Key
Transportation 227, 45% 0 MT, 45% - 15% for 25 years is 19.83 MT
Electricity 128, 25% 0 MT, 25% - 15% for 25 years is 11.18MT
Industrial 105, 21% 0 MT, 21% - 15% for 25 years is 20.51 MT
Residential 32, 6% 0 MT, 6% - 15% for 25 years is 2.8 MT
Commercial 13, 3% 0 MT, 3% - 15% for 25 years is 9.87 MT
Total - 505MT, 100% 0 MT, 100% 62.72 MT, 100%
Let’s look at California’s current electricity sources and do some math
The compounding rule of 72 shows we can decrease our electricity emissions by as little as 4% a year to achieve more than an 80% reduction in electric emission by 2050 and get close to our goal by 2035.
CA Electric Source% Annual Change In 2035 In 2050
Renewable 11.8% + 4 % per annum 31.46% 56.66%
Natural Gas 45.2% - 4% per annum 16.26 % 9%
Nuclear 14.8% + 4 % per annum 71.06 % 0% change, 71.06%
Large Hydro 11.7% + 4 % per annum 31.19 % 0% change, 31.19%
Coal 16.6% - 4 % per annum 5.98 % 0% use
Total Electricity 149.97 167.91% of current
Decrease in Emissions 77% clean 90% clean
At 4% change in every sector, there is 67.91% more energy than we currently use and 90% of that is clean energy by 2050, 77% clean by as early as 2035.
Each sector in the state of California can reasonably achieve a minimum of 4% more efficiency and/or 4% more production of clean energy annually.
Continued achievement in conservation and delivery efficiency stabilizes energy needs with population growth. Policy, culture and cost can shift behavior incrementally.
Certain projects do not occur in 4% increments. For example, nuclear would need one additional power plant which may not be complete until 2020.
This plan provides sufficient energy for a growing population with reasonable lifestyle changes living at about the same energy-use level and quality as your average happy Italian. Did you feel deprived on your last Italian vacation? Most find this reduced energy lifestyle enjoyable.
The plan is fiscally and environmentally achievable through the implementation of business and populace incentive, education and trend setting towards system-wide approaches that have proven to be inherently more stable in the long term.
This system charges, through tax and caps, industry and users for emissions and resources that are inherently or intrinsically part of Commons property and reduces that which endangers that Commons or is related to the well being of the Commons future.
This scenario shows that an 80% reduction is achievable, with change similar to the annual growth in an average business or investment portfolio.
This plan expresses the importance of an incremental step-by-step plan across the entire landscape rather than a giant leap into a fiscally unknown abyss.
California is achieving this and so can the world
Clean energy production continues to outpace the 4% key. New clean technology achievements are continually being developed and are currently the fastest growing sector. Climate stabilization has inspired thousands of entrepreneurs to experiment with the production of efficient clean electrons and delivery technology as the biggest opportunity both in new business and in legacy creation. Many of these new ideas have significant impact far greater than 4% annually. For example, the smart grid technology, home energy management systems, cheaper photovoltaic, larger wind farms as well as building integrated wind production are but a few on the electric side of emissions that have far reaching impacts.
Clean energy production continues. New technology achievements are continually being created to facilitate the use and production side such as the smart grid, home energy management systems, cheaper photovoltaic, larger wind farms. The most intriguing thing to me about revolutionizing the energy sector is that the design phase of a product is where 80% of the footprint is determined. Designers today and in the future take into account the costs of the environment as intrinsic to their work. Environmental cost will continually become fiscal cost and so will be increasingly intrinsic to the system-wide integrated design approach. Life cycle software is being developed to evaluate all new products, and consumer demand for these items creates a competitive platform for business to achieve environmentally sound benchmarks. As we continue to modernize, we will find much more bio-mimicry, integrated approaches to production and supply chain that are more efficient both in cost, energy production and in environmental impact. This is the opportunity of the future.
The Key to the California Golden Gate Plan is 4%.
Incremental goals that compound at a minimum of 4% annually double conservation and efficiency efforts and clean technology in 18 years, achieving an 80% reduction by 2050. Many of these sectors are already improving at much faster rates. By applying this marketing key, all sectors will have a common indicator that expresses the importance of annual progress. This indicator facilitates the community to engage in a step by step approach to achieving a giant leap that currently seems overwhelming. According to the energy almanac, California population is growing at about 1.5% annually and may double by 2050. I chose 4% on the efficiency side to account for this population growth. Population may grow from 40 million in 2010 to 72 million in 2050 and at the same time we need to reduce emissions from 505 MTs CO2 Equivalent to 100 MTs CO2 Equivalent by 2050. Compounding interests across the diverse energy landscape can achieve this.
Perspective is everything when viewing a challenge; choose your approach to spanning the gap.
Step-by-Step, following economic progress trends achieves the Golden Gate Plan.
Four percent is an annual percentage that follows reasonable economic and investment growth. The Mundi Index shows 137 countries in the world are growing at 4% or faster a year. This is America’s chance to rejoin those ranks. The lion’s share of economic growth is already shifting to this new sector that restores the environment, and provides safe energy, water and food for a growing population. Business success means providing services a population needs. Clean energy is what people need and want to have readily available. Will business ignore this dynamic growing market share? According to the Silicon Valley San Jose Business Journal, venture capital investments in clean tech reached record levels in 2008 with $4.7 billion raised in 186 financing rounds — a 68 percent increase in annual capital invested and a 5 percent increase in annual financing activity, according to a study released. In 2008, the top four clean tech segments — electricity/electricity generation, alternative fuels, energy efficiency and energy storage — experienced strong growth compared to 2007. Energy/electricity generation raised $2.7 billion in 2008, increasing 215 percent. The alternative fuels segment grew 50 percent to $703 million. Energy efficiency raised $427 million, growing 6 percent, and energy storage raised $320 million, increasing 9 percent. Solar investments alone raised $444 million in Q4. Three of the top five deals for all of Q4 were California-based solar companies. The largest of these was completed by Solyndra Inc., a company that designs and manufactures photovoltaic systems in Fremont, which raised $219 million.” According to interviews with Silicon Valley Venture Capitalist last month clean tech is the fastest growing market on the horizon. These technology improvements are pacing much faster than 4% a year. This is why I believe global focus and perspective with show an 80% reduction is achievable, reasonable especially if California takes a leadership role.
Selecting an equitable minimum annualized 4% requirement for each sector of use and production currently adopted in the energy landscape will create more universal “buy- in” and comprehension of how to achieve system-wide progress with a universal goal… multi-species survival and well being.
Compounding Common Interests
Stanford Professor Paul M. Romer uses the compounding principle of 72 to evaluate economic growth internationally and notes, “…in the 25 years between 1975 and 2000, income per capita in China grew at almost 6% per year. At this rate, income doubles every 12 years. …Leading countries like the United States, Canada, and the members of the European Union cannot stay ahead merely by adopting ideas developed elsewhere. They must offer strong incentives for discovering new ideas at home.” He then states that the same characteristic that makes an idea so valuable — everybody can use it at the same time — depletes the rate of return on the investment in ideas as products are brought to scale more affordably by the adopters. I argue that universal adoption builds the market size, and has been shown to grow the return on investment seen with companies like Microsoft, and Cisco.
Rather than worry about the rate of return on investments in ideas as a fiscal number, we may want to celebrate the rate of return on the more valuable asset of Commons health. Addressing those needs builds market size and capacity in business terms and in ethical terms simultaneously. According to Prof. Romer, business people worry that many people who benefit from a new idea can too easily free-ride on the efforts of others. As a product designer, I have had many of my products copied and viewed it as both a compliment and an indication that I had contributed a good idea that served society and is valuable, thus exponentially increasing my market penetration. Additionally these bonus “complements” and services to society are held in my personal legacy savings and have contributed to the wealth of many, these values seem to have outlasted all the fiscal profits I made from creating the goods. Long lasting bio-diverse values that will outlive me have been one way I have banked a host of diverse savings. No amount of money can replace the service we provide for the well being of society as a whole and the rewards for this are often found in personal joy and the elusive sense of satisfaction I will talk about later. In strict business terms markets and profits grow when a genuine service to society and the Commons is created.
Outpacing the 4% key
Wind power generating capacity swelled by 50% in 2008, positioning wind power as one of the leading sources of new power generation in the country. American Wind Energy Association. The U.S. wind energy industry shattered all previous records in 2008 by installing 8,358 megawatts (MW) of new generating capacity (enough to serve over 2 million homes), The American Wind Energy Association (AWEA). California has plans to produce 20% of all electric energy from wind by 2020. The massive growth in 2008 swelled the nation’s total wind power generating capacity by 50% and channeled an investment of some $17 billion into the economy, positioning wind power as one of the leading sources of new power generation in the country. According to the Electric Power Research Institute, the cost of producing wind energy has decreased nearly four fold since 1980. The cost of energy from wind turbines in 1993 was about 7.5 cents per kilowatt/hour. With current wind research and development efforts, the Energy Commission estimates that newer technologies can reduce the cost of wind energy to 3.5 cents per kilowatt-hour.
According to Reuters Report on March 3, 2009, “Over the past 8 years, the capacity growth of world’s solar power system has increased profoundly, from 345 MW in 2001 to 2826 MW in 2007, the compound annual growth rate was 42%; in 2007, the global solar energy industry output value reached $17.2 billion and the production capacity of solar cell had risen from
2204 MW in 2006 to 3436 MW in 2007, an increase of 56 per cent year-on-year. The average annual growth rate of China’s photovoltaic industry was 49.5% in the last 5 years and the annual growth rate of 2007 was 56.2%, became the world’s biggest producer of solar products, accounting for 26.6 per cent of global production. In 2007 there were 6 Chinese solar cell companies in the world’s top 16 solar cell companies.
Italy has already installed 30 million smart meters over a five year period. The 2 billion dollar investment paid for itself in just four years and Enel Electric is currently generating savings of $625 million annual savings and an estimated 25% increase in efficiency. Following Italy’s lessons in efficiency, PG&E is currently installing 10.3 million smart meters throughout its service area by the year 2012. They will now be able to monitor and manage their power consumption over the Internet using a web portal. Global Energy Partners estimates the emissions reduction impact of a fully employed Smart Grid will be 60 to 211 million metric tons of CO2 per year in 2030.
http://www.smartmeters.com/the-news/237-smart-meters-installed-around-the-world.html — www.smartgridnews.com
From President Obama’s American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan
“First we must take bold action to create a new American energy economy that creates millions of jobs for our people. The American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan before Congress places a down payment on this economy. It will put 460,000 Americans to work with clean energy investments and double the capacity to generate alternative energy over the next three years. It will lay down 3,000 miles of transmission lines to deliver this energy to every corner of our country. It will save taxpayers $2 billion a year by making 75 percent of federal buildings more efficient. And it’ll save working families hundreds of dollars on their energy bills by weatherizing 2 million homes. This is the boost that our economy needs and the new beginning that our future demands.
California’s pioneering spirit leads in Venture capital investments in clean technologies
California’s robust venture capital and entrepreneurial spirit has significant penetration in the eight major clean technologies: solar power, wind power, biofuels and biomaterials, green building, personal transportation, smart grid, mobile applications, and water filtration/delivery all have investment and active revolutionary projects ongoing in the state of California.
The California Golden Gate Plan will set the example for the world of how much MORE we can have with less CO2 emissions. MORE accountability includes a system-wide approach to design, production, distribution and use that incorporates the natural world and ethics. MORE accountability creates jobs in the field of efficiency, design, planning and implementation. MORE accountability provides new industry incentive and old industry competition to achieve genuine landmarks in CO2 reductions and system-wide resource management and realistic resource cost. A 4% annualized reduction in emissions applied to cap and trade may facilitate this progress toward a new abundant clean energy economy.
Pioneering Californians Conserve
According to the Human Development Index, Americans use on average 12,000 killowatt-hours (kWh) per annum of electricity. The average California burns less than 7000 kWh and can continue to enhance its efficiency progress by building a lifestyle affinity with countries like Italy which use approximately 4000 kWh per capita, about 42% less. I like the example of Italy because California’s climate and population is similar to Italy and the civilized luxury of local foods and fashion, scenic train rides and passive heating and cooling are in our midst. Our citizens have been emulating much of the Italian lifestyle over the years with a well established wine and agricultural community. Italy is widely used in marketing of local foods, fashions and styles. The sophisticated quality of life standards that the Italians enjoy can be part of marketing MORE with CO2 savings. Californians can continue to enjoy locally produced foods, fashions, art and dinner al fresco which, once experienced, can be popularized as an improvement on current lifestyle trends using Italy as a model.
The Golden Gate Plan continues to set the trend for conservation in America
California achieved energy stabilization while pioneering a landmark shift in which big business could succeed while promoting conservation and product offerings that many states now emulate.
California has been a role model for success, efficiency and innovation since 1974 due largely to the work of Arthur Rosenfeld, Ralph Cavanaugh and Amory Lovins. “Today California uses less energy per capita than any other state in the country, defying the international image of American energy gluttony. Since 1974, California has held its per capita energy consumption essentially constant, while energy use per person for the United States overall has jumped 50 percent. California has managed that feat through a mixture of mandates, regulations and high prices. The state has been able to cut greenhouse-gas emissions, keep utility companies happy and maintain economic growth.” The Washington Post, 2/17/2007
Utility Decoupling Policies Nationwide
California adopted a decoupling policy for natural gas in 1978 and electricity in 1982. This policy has been instrumental in California’s efforts to increase energy efficiency.Under decoupling, California’s per-capita energy use has remained relatively flat over the last thirty years. California’s lead has been followed by many states nationwide and may become one of the best policy tools for increasing energy efficiency. “Ralph Cavanagh co-director of the NRDC, won the Lifetime Achievement in Energy Efficiency Award from California’s Flex Your Power Campaign’s energy efficiency program for his innovative work on efficiency in this area” (source: Flex YourPower- www.fypower.org)
In September of 2007, California adopted Decoupling Plus, which protects ratepayers’ financial investment, ensures that the program savings are real and verified and enforces penalties for substandard performance. This increases incentive to invest in cost effective energy efficient methods. Energy efficiency is thus a core part of operations and revenue better manage peak and off peak use this incentive for furthering smart grid applications and conservation. The estimated return to investors is 100% of their investment in energy efficiency.
California: a role model for decoupling and energy efficiency
The decoupling policy has already been adopted by 22 states. President Obama’s administration is creating decoupling mandates across the country.
Conservation – Efficiency – Energy Technology imply new business growth and jobs
There are several net cost savings and net emissions savings profiled by the McKinsey report that can achieve many of the near-term desired results, if applied across the entire state energy platform and mandated. This gives all sectors incremental progress and savings toward cleaner long-term investments.
Current investments of up to $30 a ton of CO2 are worthwhile immediately. All offsets from
$0-$30 will render a cost savings as the price may increase to $60 a ton and be mandated system wide.
Growth Drivers of Energy Use
I have modified the CUTR Conceptualization of Vehicle Miles Traveled Growth Drivers - to adopt it to a system-wide approach to what motivates use throughout the energy and emissions landscape to facilitate the assumption that each of these categories and sub-categories could shift toward CO2 reductions by a minimum average of 4% a year under reasonable conditions. I will briefly touch on each area in the next few pages.
• Legal/Political Climate
• Family Structure
• Social/Cultural Conditions
• Institutional Structure /Investment Landscape
The above use and implementation of conservation can be driven with the tools outlined in the California Energy Efficient Plan adopted system wide. This along with taxation increases of what I call Future Fiscal and Environmental threats — fossil fuels, CO2 emissions, habitat destruction all come at an incrementally higher cost of 4% annually for the next 25 years.
Indirect Drivers of Energy Use and Behavior
• Household/Person Characteristics
• Economic Conditions
• Behavior and Values
• Business Conditions
• Modal Availability
• Modal Performance
• Standard of Living Perceptions
• Safety, Reliability
• Convenience, etc.
Reviewing the drivers allows us to review the hubs from which to inspire new behavior.
By using full-spectrum values set forth by Richard Barrette from the World Bank and Value Center, we can establish a cultural and business environment that thrives with new modes of technology use, understanding Commons values while providing the economic conditions conducive for a rapid yet incremental technology shift. Fear is not an effective driver of long-term change. Reviewing a step-by-step approach to achieve the ultimate goal will alleviate the anxiety currently associated with the environmental movement. Telling the world to reduce emissions by 80% can be frightening and overwhelming and often does not lead to constructive community behavior. Laying out a reasonable incremental approach that expresses how the society will thrive with an 80% increase in clean energy, biodiversity, local wholesome foods and provisions for their family’s safety and well-being is something to strive for.
Richard Barrett has continually shown that corporations and nations not working from a balance of seven core values are not sustainable. They under-perform and eventually go bankrupt. In his recent study of Iceland. he reported he did not know why the country was not already bankrupt. Two weeks later the country declared bankruptcy. The seven core values in the Barrett study can be applied to MORE sustainability measures.
The California Entrepreneurial Spirit has a Global Perspective
Activity scale on the clean technology side in California follows the well-known California entrepreneurial spirit. Bold venture capital is already creating a robust Energy-Technology (ET) landscape that will provide technology and fiscal stimulus in the State of California and provide revenue for the state from abroad.
It is a reasonable assumption that energy efficiency, conservation methods with economic incentives such as decoupling combined with scaling some of the new clean technology of renewable, energy management devices and fluid fuels, will reduce the emissions associated with population and industry growth in California.
Technology and Motivation
The technology already exists to achieve massive emissions reductions; just not at a price we are willing to pay. I am not sure how we determine the cost of future life but it seems plausible that we are discounting ourselves while enjoying what to some may seem like excessive comfort and endangering future life on earth. Some of my fondest memories and joys have occurred while living on a boat in the Pacific and in a tent in the Masai Mara. Off the Grid and Satisfied might be a good idea for the next best seller. When is compromising our future not going to seem too expensive and too unethical? As conscious human beings, we have well established penalties for life endangerment, yet we rarely apply precautionary principles to future hazards implied by current behavior. Our consumer society and clean technology have currently been driven solely by monetary motivation, investment has not yet occurred strictly on an ethical basis but continues to be motivated by potential market share and quite unabashedly so.
We have the technology necessary to achieve 80% reductions what we lack is the will to transform the system. We fear the loss of something rather than the gain that in my mind is tremendously MORE valuable. MORE fresh air, water, health, habitat, and climate security seem priceless yet remain too costly to short-term shareholder goals shoring up false securities. Most would agree after the recent fiasco on Wall Street that these were in fact false securities after all. This may imply a radical change in the current industrial and energy business landscape.
If rape and prostitution are illegal, why do we continue to mine coal, and allow Big Oil to lobby in Washington? Until a man’s integrity cannot be bought, these challenges remain difficult and as this type of prostitution seems pervasive in our business landscape it is hard to shift into rapid-scale restoration. Conservation and clean energy are not only about CO2 emissions, they also facilitate the end to what Thomas Friedman refers to as petro-dictatorship and the restoration of biodiverse habitats. Clean energy does not rape the landscape of its natural abundance and essential balance. All living systems are safer in a clean technology environment. With so much big business in trouble, it may indeed be the end of the age of dinosaurs and the beginning of an age of clean product offerings that can genuinely compete for market share and scale more affordably. This needs to be driven by policy, subsidizing clean solutions, accelerating the learning curve price reductions and providing public market incentives. With an informed administration leading the country we may finally be able to make real progress.
To enhance public buy in I proposed a system of MORE carbon savings rewards that function similarly to airline points, giving points for purchases and investments in carbon savings products and services that can be banked in the first Public Carbon Savings Bank and Carbon Credit Union and traded in the carbon commodity market to provide public funding for public municipals. The golden gate bridge was built with public bonds. The publice currently pays more to make responsible choices, leveraging their carbon savings as a commodity investment can eventually be monetized in the form of offsets. These public carbon bonds can fund much of our new Golden Gate Bridge to the Future, helping the public cash in on a clean economy rather than being penalized financially for doing the right thing by paying 20% more for efficiency products.
Many positive changes seemed at one time disruptive, airplanes, not smoking, the internet. It’s those crazy ideas to watch for, they are the ones that might just set the trend. Californians have always had that special spirit that disrupts the norm to evolve the global system and we are doing it again with climate stabilization technology. I am not worried about the middle class can getting use to 4% annual conservation, if they began to view it as improved lifestyle quality while saving for their children, banking habitat, air and climate security for their grandchildren’s trust. The California middle class loves the Italian countryside and with proper marketing they will change behavior in style. Yes we can transform the energy landscape and all its components, maybe as early as 2035 if we equitably managed our mandated minimum contributions and rewarded for accelerating the pace. My carbon footprint is 1/3 of the national average yet my lifestyle is in the top 1% of the national average, I have a distinctly European influence but its also a choice of quality of quantity. Its been entirely a luxury not needing stuff and having time to relax.
The climate change crisis, environmental degradation and species loss is not due to a lack of solutions, it is due to a lack of integrated attitude about our behavior and consumption. Humanity evolved with tremendous creative endeavor and evolutionary spirit that over time began to separate psychologically from its intrinsic attachment to the natural world systems. I recently saw a book titled, Soon I Will Be Invincible. I laughed but knew this was the goal of business investors. Corporate kingdoms trying to meet shareholder demand felt they could become invincible while overlooking natural systems that sustain the fundamentals of life. This may not have been intentional but once the seat of power has spread its services, and seen the glint of profit capacity, it is hard to change an embedded culture of growth that is used to tremendous discounts on natural resources and discounts on the health of future species. Today’s behavior is not liable for the stability of future generations as we have all become complicit in the consumption habits. We have become employees, and consumers of a global knowledge base systems that cannot weigh knowledge over profit. Profits are a legal obligation of corporations to their shareholders, not ethics. We may not have known that we were bankrupting the future quality of life, indeed we were simply providing for services and products “needed” today.
I will never forget the day in Italy when I laid out for my manufacturers the growth plan for our corporation and the president of the manufacturing facility said, “ that will be unnecessary, I am satisfied with a third of that, we do not need to grow.” I was trained to grow my company annually under the theory that it would die or be overtaken if I didn’t. Yet, in Italy, many small business have been thriving for hundreds of years. The average company life span in the United States is less than 10 years. I believe that this recent economic meltdown, along with a wise administration that views the importance of environmental stability, will provide a window of opportunity for the thousands of entrepreneurs that can combine sustainability with profitability. These businesses can thrive on a stable platform of full spectrum values, sustainability indicators, and profits.
Big Change is On the Horizon
Coal and oil industries are funding tremendous amounts of research to maintain viability. In the future these industries may be viewed as dinosaurs. This seems unthinkable today when 85% of all our energy comes from coal and oil, but the dynamic nature of mankind will persevere and change, it has to and it is already doing so. I think business as usual implies by nature, change and evolution, change is a normal part of all dynamic systems. I was hired by the Secret Archives of the Vatican Library to create product offerings that would build “ Catholic Market Share”. Regardless of the longstanding and huge infrastructure and incredible collection of historical international intrigue, much of the Catholic church is already a tourist museum. I was hard put to “convert” shoppers who saw this work as fascinating but outdated.
There may come a time when we visit oil refineries and coal plants like we visit museums today. With intrigue, appreciation for a contribution towards evolution, but nevertheless extinct and viewed as antiquated systems that almost destroyed the world.
I appreciate the work and research that has been done to mitigate the damages of emissions with sequestration and clean fuels. Until better solutions can come to scale, I do not see oil and coal as pertinent or practical long-term solutions to our energy needs.
Defensive competitive pricing promotes offensive pricing triggers and standards.
My defence of offence is again Italy — they sell quality not quantity. My book Sailing Your Business — Follow the Laws of Nature and Win the Race goes more in depth to the stewardship of quality, integrity and heirloom practices as promoting longevity and stability in business and environment. Selling stewardship and integrity are customer keepers and culture creators in a system that has currently bankrupted itself by false assurances and the pirating of resources and loopholes.
Book and Photograph by Daisy Carlson
All industry is currently having to look in the mirror and must come to terms with its relationship to the natural world. By following the laws of nature, system-wide approaches can incorporate the ethical assumptions of all organic systems now and for future generations of all life. Legal repercussions must be upheld for knowingly robbing the system. The precautionary principle requires us to not endanger life knowingly or by chance. In other words, all industry must quit pirating the planet or be forced from the race by the new standards. Below is the increasing cost according to Mckinsey of industry pirates. Carbon is the new global currency; it may soon become the largest-traded global commodity in the world market.
Additional improvements that can lead to behavioral change
Labeling foods and products with the real environmental costs, providing carbon footprints at the point of purchase are one example of helpful auxiliary business that can change behavior throughout the system. Along with CO2 savings rewards, I recommend creating MORE footprints at the point of purchase.
Residential and Commercial
California already has “Big Bold” initiatives that help drive the Golden Gate Plan
Strategies to Achieve Target levels in Residential and Commercial Areas.
Apply of the McKinsey net cost savings abatements in high-performance lighting,electric.
Provide mandates on businesses, lights-out after hours,
Continue deeper penetration of rooftop solar subsidies and cost extensions by 4% annually. Increase green space near homes and business with strategic planting for temperature stabilization
Install smart energy management systems and appliances enhancing with energy cycling with brief interruptions on all smarter appliances. Disconnect switches to reduce passive use drain
Mandates of LEEDS certification on new construction.
Install solar films. Mandating home insulation with rebates.
Popularizing the one time change of 4% lower temperature in winter and 4% higher in summer can render a cost and energy savings of up to 20% annually with automatic timers that reduce night time and day time drain.
Enforce the conservation strategies California already has in place:
Graph from California Energy Plan
Current Use Change per year 2050
100% Natural Gas - 4%per annum 19.54%.
The above chart indicates that to reduce natural gas, we would have to implement on demand water heaters system-wide and improved efficiency space heaters along with aerated shower heads in all new construction and at a 4% replacement rate for 40 years reducing current need from 88% to 17.2% of total use. Mandating CFLs and LEDs reduces building electricity by 75% and renders a cost savings and is reasonable with clear and designated bulb recycling center lock boxes every 5 miles
California’s Current 2.1.4 STRATEGIES
“The market transformation envisioned by the residential sector Vision and Goals involves changing both the supply chain of products and services and the behaviors that residential energy consumers rely on to use energy efficiently. The four interrelated residential goals are designed to achieve this transformation through the following themes:
1. Building Innovation: Drive continual advances in technologies in the building envelope, including building materials and systems, construction methods, distributed generation, advanced metering infrastructure, and building design, and incorporate technology advances into codes and standards.
2. Comprehensive Solutions: Develop, offer and promote comprehensive solutions for single and multi-family buildings, including energy efficiency measures, demand management tools and real-time information, and clean distributed generation options in order to maximize economic decision-making and energy savings.
3. Customer Demand: Create high levels of customer demand for progressively more efficient homes through a coordinated statewide public education campaign and targeted incentive programs.
4. Statewide Solutions: Coordinate and collaborate with State agencies and private organizations to advance research and development and to align State efforts on buildings.
5. Financing: Work with the financial community to develop innovative and affordable financing options for energy efficient buildings and retrofits.
6. Codes and Standards: Adopt aggressive and progressive minimum energy codes and standards for buildings and plug loads, effective code compliance and enforcement, and parallel, tiered voluntary energy efficiency standards that pull the market along and set a higher bar for
Applying the 4% key combined with strategic mandates creates significant progress
Smart Meters installed by utilities are a cost savings to the utility as well as significantly increase efficiency on the delivery and production side.
Efficient lighting technology and implementation of CFLs reduces lighting immediately by 75%. Lighting goes from 34.5% to 8.6%.
According to Saturn Resource Management, if you set your temperature back 10 to 15 degrees for 8 hours while you’re asleep or at work, your energy savings can be 5% to 15% of your energy bill. Installing setback thermostats is an efficient way to automatically adjust temperature at pre-set times will maximize these conservation.
Technology provides efficiency improvements regularly. New refrigerators, for example, use one-half to one-quarter of the electricity older models consume. The continued development of smart appliances will provide significant emissions savings
According to Saturn Resource Management, windows are also one of the most important energy-related elements in a commercial building. Lighting and cooling are most often the commercial building’s most expensive energy costs. Daylight from windows can replace electric lighting with educated occupants and effective automatic controls. However, sunshine also brings heat, which the air-conditioning system must remove. Glare is another window-related problem that must be confronted in order to create a healthy and productive visual environment. Mandating solar window film provides a clear solution to lowering heating and cooling needs, reducing emissions and costs with reductions of up to 81%.
Many of the unmet strategies to reduce emissions in the Industrial sector can be mitigated through enhanced education of:
A. Cost saving measures
B. Annualized 4% reduction cap and offsets system-wide.
C. Efficiency in production to meet increased resource costs.
D. Voluntary carbon offsets ($30 billion dollars worth in the US in 2008).
Businesses can thrive and are thriving while offsetting and eliminating emissions.
Mckinsey Report 2008
An overview of Industry and Agriculture Emissions
Applying the 4% key to Industry
In 2004, Industrial GHG emissions in California totaled 95.9 MMT CO2. In order to reach the target goal of 19.80 MMTCO2Eq reduction in GHG emissions by 2050, however, each segment of industry must reduce emissions by 4% per year, each year, to achieve less than 18.74.
Current Use Goal Change per year 2050
95.9MMTCO2Eq 19.80 MMTCO2Eq -4% per annum 18.74 MMTCO2Eq
Strategies to Achieve Target Levels
Government must take a leadership role by mandating goals and providing support to industries.
Consumer education builds the market value and demand for energy-efficient products, labeling may be a big part of creating this competition for market share
Cogeneration (15-20% potential energy savings)
Efficient Heat-Recovery Systems (5-10% potential energy savings)
Pressure Recovery Turbines (5% potential energy savings)
Strict adherence to operating and maintenance procedures (10-20% potential energy savings)
Identify and eliminate sources of leakage (18-20% potential energy savings),Improve combustion processes (10-15% potential energy savings). Improve efficiency of motor-driven systems (20-25% potential energy savings)
Applying the 4% key to Agriculture
Accounts for 7% equal to 28MMTCO2Eq of GHG emissions in CA
Goal is to reduce this by 80%, 5.6MMTCO2Eq, by 2050
Applying the 4% key from the Golden Gate Plan
Current Use Goal Change per year 2050
28MMTCO2Eq 5.6MMTCO2Eq - 4% per annum 5.47 MMTCO2Eq
Elements to consider when evaluating agriculture
Land Use factors effect cities and the countryside equally
• Density of population of both people, farm animals, monocrop populations
• Urban Form/ Farm form
• Urban Design / Farm Design and planning
Create a single oversight body to implement & regulate the agricultural industry to address conflicting requirements and permitting processes.
Educate farmers on GHG reduction methods, permaculture, and precision farming.
Establish an offset program or incentives to make project economically attractive.
Label food products with energy & emission footprint.
Currently less than 2% cropland currently employs conservation tillage, or no tillage practices. Permaculture can significantly increase production while reducing environmental impacts. This and precision farming with drip delivery of water and fertilizers have dramatic impacts on conservation.
Irrigation pumping accounts for 80% of electric energy use in the agriculture sector and has average pumping efficiencies of 53%. Below are some existing efficiency measures that can
increase annual efficiency.
Farm machinery Irrigation / water management
• Reduce fuel use • Solar water pumps
• Increase engine efficiency • Drip irrigation systems
• Bio-fuel conversion • Center-pivot irrigation systems
• Solar stationary farm equipment
Agricultural CO2 Sequestration
An estimated 3 MMt CO2Eq can be stored in California soils by improving:
• Permanent plantings on field borders & marginal grounds
• Soil restoration with organic nutrient amendments
• Cropland and grazing land management
• Nitrogen efficiency
• Livestock and manure
• Rice management
California’s Golden Gate Plan Applies the 4% Key to Transportation
According to Statistics presented by Prof. Sally Benson at Stanford, today we rely on fossil fuels to meet over 85% of our energy needs. Energy use is growing at a worldwide pace of about 2% per year. Currently half our emissions are incurred in the transportation sector. This sector is improving by about 4% a year on the technology side.
If conservation, efficiency and new technology increased by reasonable rates of about 4% with the focus of profit being intrinsic to energy efficiency, we would achieve 80% reductions.
We already have the technology. Where we lack the 80% efficiency rate is in consumer and manufacturer attitude and this too is changing by a rate probably at least as fast as 4%. I have been impressed with the number of agents for change hard at work worldwide to achieve emissions reductions.
Current Average Goal Change per year 2050
227 MTCO2 45.4 MTCO2 - 4%per annum 44.35 MTCO2.
The above diagram from the IPCCWG3 Transportation Report outlines the potential of the compounding rule of 72. We can double our efficiency, conservation, and technology by progressing as little as 4% a year to achieve sufficient reductions in the transportation field.
Current Average Change per year 2035 2050
22 mpg + 4%per annum 58.65mpg 105.63mpg
In 40 years, 4% compounds to achieve 105.62 mpg. This kind of efficiency may not be possible now, but I argue that progress compounds annually and these figures are within range, if we apply the 4% key to conservation, efficiency, and technology in the following ways:
Conservation for Transportation
Currently 70% of emissions are from road traffic. By investing in better public transportation and municipal bonds, applying fees to use roads, and increasing gas taxes, we can reduce road traffic even with a growing population. By charging fees to drive in city centers, we can reduce significant emissions and improve city air quality while promoting public transportation in cities. Improved telecommuting to reduce waste by working at local office pool.
We can reduce miles per capita by carpool incentives, increased costs, and carbon taxes. An estimated 32 million cars are currently on the road in California. The average motorist drives 10,000-15,000 miles per year. By increasing gas tax from 18 cents a gallon to 25 cents a gallon with annual incremental increases of 4% a year, behavior will change as we witnessed in the summer of 2008.
The increased revenue can be used for environmental education, offset sequestration and improved Green municipals. Mandating 40 mpg by 2012 will cut gasoline usage by 50% in 10 years. Promoting combined trips, travel with friends, and car pooling as fun and effective.
Providing reward incentives at DMV and insurance companies for 4% annualized mileage reductions. Rebate on cost of emissions test or registration moments when miles registered on document every two years are 25% below average per capita. Making driving unpopular and public transportation popular – easy, convenient, fun, social, with high speed internet.
We can pay for better Muni systems with the additional 4% gas tax. Charge for city driving where Muni is available like in England and Rome to reduce in town congestion and increase municipal funds.
Efficiency for Transportation
Continue research and development of carbon fiber production for lighter-weight vehicles.
All vehicles by 2020 will be hybrid orelectric or diesel vehicles
Legalize the sale of cars such as the Italian Piaggio, the fastest selling vehicle in Europe with 0 emissions. This lightweight vehicle is perfect for light cargo and delivery. According to the IPCCWG3 Transportation Report, p.325, …improving energy efficiency of light-duty road vehicles can reduce emissions by up to 50%.
Begin selling Flex vehicles and light duty trucks. In Brazil where there is large ethanol availability as an automotive fuel, there has been a substantial increase in sales of Flexfuel Vehicles (FFV). Flexfuel vehicle sales in Brazil represent about 81% (Nov. 2006) of the market share of light-duty vehicles. The use of FFVs facilitates the introduction of new fuels. The incremental vehicle cost is small, about $100 US. IPCCWG3Transportation Report
Below we can see the % change of switching technology in vehicles. As the more efficient technologies replace older models, we should be at a 30% carbon reduction per vehicle by 2020, again outpacing the 4% key.
Current Average Change per year 2050
87% fuel energy wasted - 4%per annum 17% fuel energy wasted
Many experts in the field believe this is feasible and that we will achieve this.
The average replacement of fleet every 7 to 10 years we can average of 60-70 mpg by 2050. Toyota has already increased fuel efficiency by 30%.
The California Golden Gate Plan sets out to show the public that we can and are making significant impacts on a daily basis. By taking a step by step practical approach to progress that improves all elements of energy use and delivery by about 4% a year, we can achieve dramatic change incrementally, and at a pace that humanity is accustomed to, able to manage and plan for. Reducing CO2 emissions will give us MORE — Money, Organisms, Resources and Environment. This implies MORE of the things that really matter, more fresh air, fresh water, habitat, fresh food, and time. Many sectors are outpacing the key. This does not mean other sectors can be idle; it simply means we are able to achieve the necessary goals for long-term stable survival on the planet if we build full spectrum values and sustainability practices throughout all of our systems of commerce and international culture and relations.
After 20 years of fretting over how we will ever survive this mess, I finally realize we are surviving this mess. Researching this paper I found thousands of companies hard at work making a difference. Sure there are big companies resisting the change but little companies are starting to add up to real impact. The other day in spinning class the coach said, “A little resistance is always good, you will make more progress when you have something to work against and a goal you can see ahead of you.” I add that we have to continue to pedal to get there but we will arrive, pedaling up hill against resistance is what mankind has always done to achieve an incredibly strong and dynamic system that is always improving itself.
I want to thank Sally Benson, for her grace and depth of knowledge in teaching this topic and inspiring me to take on the challenge of new perspectives. This has been one of the most moving and heartening experiences of my life. All that yoga study and here it turns out a lot of who we are in the universe and how we define ourselves is indeed about how energy moves. ..the use of electrons and energy flows. Moving energy in yoga happens most efficiently with deep breath so let’s take a deep breath and get our energy system flowing efficiently, in order to calmly and incrementally achieve a step-by-step approach to a clean state of efficient technology.
I also want to thank my teammates, Ksenia, Shanti, Terry, Bill, Ziegfried and Bob for being willing to try out my 4% key theory.